Hi everybody,

I'm here today to apologize. I want to apologize because I made some mistakes in my last post hand review.

If you have played poker just a bit (well, almost by common sense) you would realize that in the previous hand, when the action gets to the turn, your equity can not be 4%. You have an open ended and the nut flush draw. This give you at least a 30% equity. But the more I looked for the mistake, the more clueless I was so I asked in the thread found in 2+2.

My guess would be that you've also entered a river where AcJc is just A high.
That would explain a 4% equity.

He were right. So I just redid the calcs but now without the river. Here is shown what I got:

Preflop:
This change doesn't affect preflop data, that is way I'm not showing it.


Flop:

First thing I have to say here is: Forget everything you read in my last post, is all wrong! Lets gonna reevaluate the hand again. In the flop our equity changes radically (compared to the old, bad analysis), it goes from 4% to 47,7% WOOW!. We have the two overs, the nut flush draw and a backdoor straight draw, so we have a nice amount of outs. To make this call profitable we have to take a look at the odds we are getting. He bets 350 into a 230 pot that results in a 580 pot. We have to pay 350 to win 580 or 580:350 or 1,66:1. This means that our equity in the pot have to be 1/2,66 = 0,376 that is the same as 37,6%. So we smile because our 47,7% is clearly bigger than the 37,6% minimun needed.


Turn:

Here we find that our equity have been reduced, why? Because if a J hits on the river our pair may be beaten by the straight so we have fewer outs than the flop and with one chance less to hit. Anyway, we still have a nice amount of equity to make our move. We still have the three options we talked before:

a) Shoving.
b) Calling.
c) Folding.

EV = 0,60*3020 + 0,40*0,38*4030 = 2424 -> Ev = 2424 - 2000 = 424


b) Calling
In this scenario we have to make to assumptions: What happen if we hit? What happen if we don't?
We are going to have a look step by step:

b.1) We check
We check to any river. Opponent will polarize his betting range to the point that he will check behind hands with moderated showdown value (One pair in a uncordinated board, up to two pairs if the gustshot is there and at most a straight if another club comes) and will shove the rest (big showdown value and bluffs). In this situation we can only call with at least a straight because his bluff range is so thin that is almost zero.
With this assumptions we have:
EV (opp. check behind)
Pot Size: 2010
Call%: 31%
Pot Equity: 38%
EV = 2010*0,31*0,38 = 236 + 1010 = 1246 //We have to add 1010 because is the value of our stack at the river.

EV (opp. bet and we call)
Pot Size: 4030
Bet%: 69%
Pot Equity: 11%
EV = 4030*0,69*0,11 + 0 = 305

EV (total) -> 1246 + 305 - 2000 = -551




b.2) We lead
We bet any river. Ok, what does this mean? First, he doesn't have a bluff range here. We are playing against his value range only. Second, praise we are playing against a player who can fold a hand when he already put half of his stack in the middle. And third, that given how the hand has been played we need an extraordinary amount of Fold Equity because his hand looks really strong. What hands are gonna be calling our shove?
- Overpairs+ if there is no flush and no straight.
- Straights+ if a straight is possible.
- Flushes+ if a 3rd club comes.
Now that we know why are we doing this move and against what range of hand are playing lets evaluate it:
Pot size before shoving: 2010
Pot size after shoving: 4030
Fold Equity: 73%
Pot Equity: 38%
EV = 3020*0,73+4030*0,27*0,38 = 2617 -> Ev = 2617 - 2000 = 617



So the ranking ends this way:
1st - Check-Call Turn, Shove River = 617
2nd - Check-Shove Turn = 424
3rd - Check-Call Turn, Check-Call River = -551

I hope you liked my (I hope this time correct) analysis. If you want to share any thoughts or opinions or whatever just post a comment.

GL to everybody and see you soon