Hi everybody,
I'm here to make my first hand history review with the help of CardrunnersEV.
I haven't played a lot this days and there are no interesting hands in Perpetuum so I'm gonna take a look to a hand that I just played in the Early Double in Full Tilt. Let's have a look on the hand:
Full Tilt No-Limit Hold'em Tournament, 10/20 Blinds (9 handed) - Full Tilt Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com
MP2 (t2210)
MP3 (t2020)
CO (t1970)
Button (t1970)
SB (t1980)
BB (t1820)
Hero (UTG) (t2000)
UTG+1 (t2030)
MP1 (t2000)
Hero's M: 66.67
Preflop: Hero is UTG with A
, J
, J Hero bets t60, 3 folds, MP3 raises to t100, 4 folds, Hero calls t40
Flop: (t230) 5, 10
, 8 (2 players)
, 10, 8 (2 players) Hero checks, MP3 bets t350, Hero calls t350
Turn: (t930) 9
(2 players)
(2 players) Hero checks, MP3 bets t540, Hero raises to t1550 (All-In), MP3 calls t1010
River: (t4030) K (2 players, 1 all-in)
(2 players, 1 all-in) Total pot: t4030
And now I'm going to break it down:
Preflop:
I think my open is fine/close. Playing from early position it seems a stronger range to open JJ+, AQ+ but being suited I think I can play it profitably. The big mistake comes when I make the call to his 3 bet. As we can see in the next picture, if he is 3betting with a range like this (JJ+,AJs+,AKo) I'm making a big -EV call.
Flop:
Then comes the flop. Is not a bad one, and is clearly better than an A-high one so I check hoping for a check behind that it doesn't happen. So lets evaluate the flop: He bets 350 into 230 so I'm gettin 1.66:1. With the range I gave him I can't count my Ace as an out due to kicker issues, so I have: 9 outs for the flush + 3 outs for the J equals to 12 outs. 12 outs over 47 cards results in 2.92:1, So this big overbet allow me to call hoping to hit my flush (Look how this affects our equity, winning an impressive 06%!!).
Ok, now the river bring as an OESD+NFD. The jack is no more an out because a Queen would make a bigger straight. I check again hoping, once again, that my opponent check after me allowing me see a free river, but this doesnt happen neither.Now, he bets 540 into 930 so I'm getting 2.72:1 for the call. Now I have
a) Call and wait for a good card.
b) Shove on him.
So now I have to choose between calling and shoving. Once again, I think calling is too weak. If the river is a brick there's no way to win the hand unless I make a hopeless river bluff. If I raise now he may fold AK or AQ and that would be a good new for me. The problem is I don't have Fold Equity or, as we see below, I don't have enough FE to make him fold. We can see that if we can't rely on FE to win the hand, we are a big underdog
But if we take a look when we think that opponent can fold AJ+ to our bet the things are a bit different:
Now I make him fod 60% of his hands so the final Ev of the move is:
EV = 3020*0,62 +0,38*(4030*0,36) = 2431
So, if we think he's gonna fold all those hand to our reraise is a good move ;)
Hope you liked my analysis and hope to see you here for the next one.
GL at the table and see you soon.
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